A classic Rose Bowl and a Citrus Bowl between Alabama and Michigan have our attention. But which sides are the sharps on?
The most successful bettors out in Vegas have targeted two games on New Year’s Day. The sharps are sizzling after nailing both LSU (-13.5) and Clemson (2-5) in the College Football Playoffs. Over the last seven weeks, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in both NFL and college football wagering. The information from Vegas, shared here only at Sports Illustrated, is currently on a red-hot 16-6-1 ATS (73%) run on all football plays.
Citrus Bowl
Moneyline: Michigan: (+230) | Alabama: (-270)
Spread: Michigan: +7 (-110) | Alabama: -7 (-110)
Total: 58.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 58.5 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: Michigan: 31% | Alabama: 69%
Game Info: January 1, 2019 1:00pm EST / 10:00am PST | ABC
The line has held steady from its opening of Alabama as 7-point favorites despite strong public support in favor of the Crimson Tide. According to the ‘Whispers’ out in Vegas, the sharps agree with the squares and are laying the full touchdown of points despite the loss of star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (dislocated hip). The Tide will turn to sophomore QB Mac Jones for a third consecutive start. Jones had an up-and-down Iron Bowl against Auburn, throwing for 335 yards and four touchdowns, while also throwing two critical interceptions that were returned for scores in the 48-45 loss to War Eagle.
Michigan (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS), led by head coach Jim Harbaugh, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games heading into the Citrus Bowl. The Wolverines went 1-3 SU against formidable foes Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State with their only signature win coming over Notre Dame. Alabama (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) who is just 6-6 ATS this season, should still be motivated to end the season on a high note.
The sharps are expecting No. 13 Alabama to beat No. 14 Michigan in a matchup of two of the most renowned coaches in the nation in Harbaugh and Nick Saban. Alabama, will look to keep things simple for Jones and try and limit his exposure for mistakes. On the other side of the ball, Michigan will be looking to take the lead in the all-time series between the schools (2-2) that dates back to 1988. The sharps believe Saban will have his club motivated and avoid the letdown of not playing in the College Football Playoff. Lay the wood with confidence.
The Play: Alabama -7 (-120) (Buy hook)
Trends:
- The over is 4-0 in Michigan’s last four games as an underdog
- The over is 4-0 in Michigan’s last four bowl game appearances
- Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games this season
- The over is 8-2 in Michigan’s last 10 games
- Alabama is 6-6 ATS in its 12 games in 2019
- The over is 3-1 in Alabama’s last four games
Rose Bowl
Moneyline: Wisconsin: (-140) | Oregon: (+120)
Spread: Wisconsin: -3 (-110) | Oregon: +3 (-110)
Total: 51.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 51.5 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: Wisconsin: 41% | Oregon: 59%
Game Info: January 1st, 2019 5:00pm EST / 3:00pm PST | ESPN
The line has for the most part held steady from its opening of Wisconsin as 3-point favorites despite strong public support in favor of the Ducks. According to the ‘Whispers’ out in Vegas, the sharps agree with the squares and are grabbing the field goal of points with Oregon.
Wisconsin (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS), led by Heisman trophy finalist Jonathan Taylor, is 3-4 ATS in its last seven games heading into the Rose Bowl. Two of the Badgers’ three losses this season came at the hands of No. 2 Ohio State. Oregon (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS), who just dominated Utah 37-15 as 6.5-point underdogs in the Pac-12 title game, will be looking to extend the school’s bowl winning streak to six on New Year’s day.
The sharps are expecting No. 6 Oregon to defeat No. 8 Wisconsin in a matchup that will feature two possible NFL first-round hopefuls in Taylor and Oregon QB Justin Herbert—who is the NCAA’s active leader with 95 career touchdown passes. Wisconsin will lean heavily on Taylor to ground it out and keep Herbert and the Ducks offense off the field. On the other side of the ball, Oregon will try and make the Badgers one dimensional by stacking the box and force QB Jack Coan to beat them. Expect Oregon RB C.J. Verdell, who exploded for 208 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the Pac-12 Championship win over Utah, to play with a chip on his shoulder with Taylor garnering all the attention. The sharps believe the Ducks are the best team in the country not playing in the College Football Playoff. Grab the points with confidence.
The Play: Oregon +3
Trends:
- The over is 4-0 in Wisconsin’s last four games as a favorite
- Wisconsin is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games as a favorite
- Oregon is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
- Oregon is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
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