The Chiefs are laying a hefty spread to the Texans after losing to them in the regular season. So why are sharp bettors willing to back the home team here?
No. 4 Houston (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) at No. 2 Kansas City (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)
Moneyline: Houston: (+330) | Kansas City: (-450)
Spread: HOU: +9.5 (-110) | KC: -9.5 (-110)
Total: 51 – Over: (-110) | Under: 51 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: HOU: 49% | KC: 51%
Game Info: January 12th, 2020 3:05 p.m. ET / 12:05 p.m. PT | CBS
The sharps made their second big play of Divisional weekend late Thursday night in Vegas backing another home favorite. The line for Sunday’s game has hovered around its opening of Kansas City as a 9-point favorite. According to the "Whispers" out in Vegas, the sharps are laying the points with a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team that earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Houston (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) has won three of its last four games, including last weekend’s thrilling 22-19
overtime comeback Wild Card victory over the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) will be looking to earn a berth in the AFC Championship game behind one of the best offenses in the NFL led by Mahomes, star wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce. Kansas City rewarded backers over the last six games by going 5-0-1 ATS (6-0 SU) down the stretch. Mahomes, who suffered a dislocated kneecap in Week 7 against Denver, returned a few weeks later and led the Chiefs on a season-ending six-game winning streak en route to Kansas City’s fourth straight AFC West title.The sharps believe that the Texans, who are 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10, will not be able to duplicate their 31-24 road win over Kansas City back in Week 6 without a fully healthy Will Fuller, who takes the Houston offense to a different level. The boys out in Vegas believe that game was an aberration mostly due to Mahomes being hobbled by an ankle injury. In addition, the motivation here appears to indicate that the sharps believe Watson is a different quarterback on the road as opposed to the friendly confines of NRG Stadium. The sharps will be looking to once again buck a strong historical trend that has shown playoff favorites of seven or more going 24-36 ATS (40%) since 2003.
The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, who is currently on an amazing 20-6-1 ATS (77%) run on all football plays. The betting plays, supplied only to Sports Illustrated, nailed both Tennessee (+5) and Seattle (-1.5) in the Wild Card round. Over the last two months, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in both NFL and college football wagering.
The sharps like the home favorite here and are betting that the Chiefs will be able to win by double digits. Don’t underestimate an underrated Kansas City defense that closed the year incredibly strong by limiting five of its last six opponents to 17 or fewer points.
The Play: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
Trends:
- Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
- The under is 4-0 in Texans last four road games
- Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall
- Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite
- The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings between these AFC foes
- Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog
- Houston is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight road games
- Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. AFC foes
- Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games
- Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite
- Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 playoff games
- Kansas City 1-5 ATS in its last six playoff home games.
NFL Season Record: 8-6-1
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