Shawn Childs looks at the early movers in average draft position at the second base position heading into the 2020 fantasy baseball season.
Last year, seven players hit 30 home runs or more at second base with Gleyber Torres leading the way (.278 with 96 runs, 38 home runs, 90 RBI, and five steals).
Five players scored over 100 runs, and two players delivered over 100 RBI. D.J. LeMahieu had the best overall season at second base (.327 with 109 runs, 26 HRs, 102 RBI, and five SBs).
In 2018, no second basemen had over 100 RBI, and Ozzie Albies was the only player to score over 100 runs.
Max Muncy was the only player to hit over 30 home runs in 2018.
Here’s a grid showing the final stats for 2019 for the top 12 players at each position and their value
ranked by SIscore:
Last year the average of the top 12 second basemen hit .297 with 83 runs, 24 home runs, 78 RBI, and ten stolen bases over 512 at-bats. The second base position ranked fifth in overall hitter value.
For comparison, here are the projections (3/10) for the top 12 second basemen at Sports Illustrated ranked by SIscore:
The stats highlighted by the yellow line show the average projections (.291 with 93 runs, 22 home runs, 70 RBI, and 20 steals over 570 at-bats) for the top 12 second basemen in 2020.
Here’s a look at the top 12 second basemen by 2020 ADP (From March 1st through March 10th):
A fantasy owner can find power at second base this year, but building the right foundation of speed will take some work. Ideally, the best path to a balanced team comes from securing a minimum of 60 steals from 2B, SS, and MI.
Gleyber Torres looks to be the impact player in power with some underlying speed on his minor league resume. New York scored a ton of runs last year. The injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may hurt the scoring ability of the Yankees in 2020. Torres feels like an edge if his batting average and steals come along for the ride.
The new best option for a balanced skill set looks to be Ozzie Albies. He scored over 100 runs in back-to-back seasons while setting a steady floor in steals and power. His game should be improved thanks to being sandwiched between two great hitters.
Keston Hiura looks to have stud upside, but he outperformed his early minor league resume by such a wide margin. I sense some regression while being overvalued by his ADP (40). Also, Hiura has an underlying elbow issue that may eventually lead to TJ surgery.
There is no disputing the success of Ketel Marte. He’s been working hard to get stronger, and he does have more speed on his minor league resume. Tempting for sure, but I expect some fade in his batting average.
Jose Altuve is the one Astro I don’t trust this year, which is primarily due to his lost value in steals. He could be a great value if he finishes with about 15 stolen bases. His lengthy resume of success says buy the discount.
Max Muncy, Mike Moustakas, and Eduardo Escobar offer an edge in power while having the skill set of a third baseman. The best choice here comes for potential at-bats and slot in the batting order. Muncy has the best approach.
Whit Merrifield makes sense to a fantasy owner if he’s slanting his team development to steals. His top of the order opportunity adds value with about 15 home runs.
Based on success last year, D.J. LeMahieu looks to be a great value. He saved the Yankees last year many times while hitting at the top of the batting order. Even with some pullback in his stats, LeMahieu should finish as a trusted asset at second base.
Cavan Biggio is the biggest mover at the top end of the second base pool over the last week or so. He's moved up a round and half in 12-team leagues. Biggio takes plenty of walks with a 20/20 type skill set, while his only questionable quality is his batting average.
I like the bat of Tommy Edman, but he doesn’t have a full-time job for sure. His skill set has some similarities with Whit Merrifield. This key here is hitting at the top of the batting order.
I would love to target Gavin Lux this year as a hot start could push him to a favorable part of the batting order. Once he earns 500-plus at-bats while hitting near the top of the batting order, Lux will move to the inside of the first four rounds of drafts in the next couple of seasons. The Dodgers have enough veteran depth where he'll sit on some days against lefties, and LA should hit him at the bottom of the order in 2020.
Garrett Hampson qualifies at 2B and OF. His best impact should come in steals while also having the foundation skill set to hit at the top of the Rockies batting order. The key here is his playing time, which looks cloudy in the outfield while Ryan McMahon will get in his way at second base. Hampson is a bet on the come-up type option.
Brandon Lowe climbed up about a round in drafts over the last week. Tampa likes to platoon players, but they don’t have a clear right-handed option to steal playing time from Lowe. The Rays should hit him at the top of the batting order with the talent to deliver 25-plus bombs and a handful of steals.
There is no doubt Rougned Odor was bum last year as far as batting average (.205), but he still beat the average stats in runs (77), home runs (30), RBI (93), and steals (11). Worth a swing for a team that builds in his risk in batting average.
Many fantasy owners were drawn into the potential upside batting average and speed for Nick Madrigal, but that idea is starting to fade over the last week or so. His ADP (26) fell 28 spots. Madrigal still looks overvalued based on his expected weakness in home runs and RBI.
ADP Analysis Series
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